Can Sistani save the situation?

This is the best news I could imagine from Iraq. It’s a Reuters report from Michael Georgy in Najaf, saying that Ayatollah Sistani had already reached Basra from Kuwait in a ground convoy… And Sistani’s asking all Iraqis to join him in a march to Najaf.
It will be so interesting to see (a) how many thousands of Iraqis do this, (b) whether the march will be nonviolent, and (c) how they arrange the logistics of getting into the city through the US lines.
I have seen signs before that Sistani has some interest in the power of nonviolent mass organizing. This project he is launching now could (though we don’t know yet) be a major project in this genre.
Here’s what Georgy writes:

    “We ask all believers to volunteer to go with us to Najaf,” Sistani said in a statement read out on his behalf in Basra by his aide Hayder al-Safi. “I have come for the sake of Najaf and I will stay in Najaf until the crisis ends.”
    Sistani’s aides said he would leave for Najaf at 7 a.m. (4 a.m. British time) on Thursday with his supporters. They urged the militia to leave the mosque and U.S. forces not to interfere…

As for the Sadrists:

    Sadr aide Mahmoud al-Soudani told Al Arabiya television the Mehdi militia were prepared for talks to halt the fighting…
    “We are ready to respond to any call from Sayed Sistani or anyone else to stop the bloodshed,” he said.
    Sadr also called for his own followers to march on Najaf.

I think a key to winning solid political success out of this venture–for Sistani, for the Sadrists, and for the integrity of the political process inside Iraq as a whole–is for participants in these marches to (1) be truly nonviolent and (2) keep to the discipline of nonviolence. (i.e. No stone-throwing, fighting, or other forms of confrontation; just steady and dignified progress towards the goal, using only friendly moral suasion to persuade any potential obstructors to stand aside.)
And, as in Mahatma Gandhi’s victorious satyagraha movement in India, it certainly always helps to have plenty of media around to disseminate the news and images of what is happening!
This action could, potentially, involve a large chunk of the Shi-ites who make up 60-plus percent of Iraq’s national population. If it does turn out to be BIG, and also to be nonviolent, then it could help transform the nature of the inter-group interactions in the country from one of confrontation, battles, and divisions into one of ‘normal’ (i.e. not violent) political jockeying-for-power, but one in which the Shi-ite community becomes much mbetter and more stably organized at the political level.
(As I’ve argued on JWN before, it is crucial to the success of normal politics in Iraq that the Shi-ite community develop stable political structures. Since it is such a large proportion of the national population there can be no political stability at the national level without that.)
Sistani’s own positions on the political issues of the day will be crucial. How will his relations be with Moqtada al-Sadr? And with the Allawist government? Is he trying to position himself as a middle force between those two; to stake out his own position; or might he align more with Sadr’s grievances against the Allawists?
Soudani’s statement about “responding to the call of Sayed Sistani”, as noted above, would seem to prepare the way for some cooperation between them.
Much will also depend on other factors, principally the actions the US forces take in the days ahead. Will the US military decide to let all the marchers pass through its lines, and thus to defuse the military confrontation in and around Najaf? Will they (and Amb. Negroponte) allow Allawi to participate in a normal, peaceful political process with his compatriots–or are they determined to continue trying to use the Allawists as their own local Quislings?
… So many different possibilities… But I’ve been praying and hoping-against-hope for a peaceful resolution to the Najaf crisis. Sistani’s initiative could end up resulting both in that and–just possibly–in a broader transformation of relations inside Iraq.
Keep praying, folks.

18 thoughts on “Can Sistani save the situation?”

  1. Sistani has in the past demonstrated his ability to mobilize massive crowds of peaceful protestors, and send them back home, all with a snap of his fingers. Hopefully he will be able to accomplish the same thing this time on an even more massive scale.
    However, his suspiciously timely little trip to London right before the U.S. assault on Najaf, combined with his equally suspiciously timely return just in time to help the Americans back down “gracefully” from their attack on the fourth holiest site in Islam, have put a significant dent in his credibility with Shi`as, Sunnis, and non-Muslims alike.

  2. Shirin, you may be right about the credibility question. But we don’t know yet whether that will undermine the ability of this action to be effective.
    The way I see it, any nonviolent resolution of the crisis is better than a violent resolution. Violence has such a strong power of consuming and taking over any situation in which it is given half a handhold, and it leads to increased social divisiveness and general fitna (social breakdown).
    As for helping the Americans back down ‘gracefully’, well, as far as I’m concerned, that’s a lot better than not backing down at all!
    As I wrote in this Aug 16th post here, “the people in Iraq who want to see the US forces leave should be giving active thought to the idea of offering and helping to ensure their safe passage out of the country.”
    That’s at the nationwide level. At the local level it applies, too…

  3. If any large scale nonviolent movement starts to take place in Iraq the American position would quickly become untenable. They could be driven from Iraq in mere months if a serious effort were made. But for success the mass media in America would actually have to care. This administration has completely co-opted the media, and exposed its complete lack of objectivity. Also, the media here would not show pictures of the militaries response to crowds in the thousands. I fear this would allow the administration to quickly define the demonstrators as

  4. In order for the marchers to be thugs and criminals it would be necessary to shoot at them first(this is akin to the German Army’s saying on the Eastern Front during WW2: “if you kill them, they’re partisans”).
    Maybe Sistani can pull something out of the hat.
    If we and Allawi let him.

  5. I pray that Sistani can pull this off, even if it allows the Americans to gracefully “save face” and back down.
    A peaceful resolution as a result of the people’s will is always the better way. Revolution and rebellion can be achieved by peaceful civil disobedience. Gandhi proved that.

  6. It is of the utmost importance that Sistani call for an immediate halt to all the violence in Najaf – he seems to be moving in that direction. A mass demonstration (peaceful, of course) would be a huge victory for the people of Iraq.
    When violence is used to topple a corrupt regime – the regime after it is usually corrupt as well. For instance, in Russia (1917 Soviet Revolution); Cuba (Castro’s Revolution and subsequent dictatorship); Iran (Revolution of 1979); Israel (1948 Zionist Revolution) etc…
    With that said, peacefull movements for democracy and self-government have worked in Serbia (Milosevic’s regime was defeated by a massive non-violent movement); Soviet Union (1989 – there is still much progress to be made in destroying the old Soviet system; however, the process has begun); South Africa (1994); India (Gandhi’s Revolution); Venezuela (Chavez’s recent win) etc…
    Non-violence is the best chance for a positive change in Iraq.
    Thank You for the great posts helena.

  7. For those reading French, there is an interesting interview of Seyyed Ayad Moussaoui by Cecile Hennion in le Monde. He is close to Sistani. His answers seems to confirm Helena these concerning Sistani emulating Gandhi
    The whole interview is very interesting; below are the two last question along with my unskilled translation :
    Que se passera-t-il si les forces am

  9. By the way, Christiane, I just embedded your link there for easier reading… If you felt up to translating some more of the interview we could post it in a main post here, with attribution. That wd be great!

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