… Okay, well maybe it’s not quite that. But the old fox certainly sounded pretty darn’ pleased with himself and the general situation in the sermon he gave in Teheran last Friday.
Okay, I have a problem here. I have the text of his sermon, that came to me via an impeccable source, but without an actual WWW link. I have no reason to suppose the following is fallacious or faked in any way. It’s attributed to BBC Monitoring in Caversham, UK (which is sited just half a mile from the boarding school I went to when I was but a girl, but that’s a different story). But I can’t find this text in the public-domain web. If someone can get me a link, that wd be great…
So anyway, this below is part of the text of the sermon that former Iranian President and present Iranian eminence grise Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani reportedly gave in Teheran last Friday, according to the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, in Persian, as translated and trasncribed by BBC Monitoring.
The whole sermon is an intricately constructed argument, divided into a description of the 13 goals the US was pursuing in Iraq, followed by a description of 34 issues that they face there today.
It was the 18th of the 34 issues that really caught my eye:
- The 18th issue concerns the strengthening of Iran as a result of such adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. (And that is) because America has become vulnerable. (In fact) we have not become much stronger, but it is the Americans who have become vulnerable. They (the Americans) are now in the region as a very effective target. Of course Iran does not wish to get involved in acts of adventurism. We do not intend to become involved in clashes. We do not intend to interfere. We helped in the case of Afghanistan, we helped in the case of Iraq and we are still helping in security and other issues, but America has become vulnerable.
America’s vulnerability means Iran becoming stronger. And, we have small
accounts with the Americans which we must settle one day and bring the issue to a close.
Oh, what a fox! “We do not intend to become involved in clashes. We do not intend to interfere. We helped in the case of Afghanistan, we helped in the case of Iraq and we are still helping in security and other issues, but… we have small accounts with the Americans which we must settle one day… ”
Along the way there–and in a possibly (tho not necessarily) different context– he does mention the $100 billion claim that Iran has outstanding against Iraq, as reparations for the damages inflicted on Iran during the Very First Gulf War of the Modern Era, that was, the eight-year-long orgy of mass slaughter that Saddam launched against Iran in September 1980.
In his discussion of Issue 34, Rafsanjani comes back to the topic of Issue 18. But here, he speaks a little more bluntly still:
- The thirty fourth point [similar to the one] that I mentioned earlier was America’s vulnerability and Iran’s strength in relation to another incident. But this case is independent. America has become vulnerable. It can retain its superpower image by adopting a sound policy and based on this image can achieve many of its goals. But, now, America has become a hollow drum and the question is, what can it do?
America’s dilemma is taking the final decision: to stay in Iraq or to leave. If it stays, It will have to finance its stay daily, suffer casualties, take more wounded, endure disrepute and finally escape, because it is clear that this adventure will not pay. These obstacles are all real.
And if it decides to leave, how could it do that? America has created chaos in a country which despite its despotic rule had a standing. And now if it leaves, what will be left behind? And what will its answer be if a civil war starts in Iraq? What will its answer be if Iraq is disintegrated? What will its answer be to those who say that you took up a responsibility and then left the job half done? this will be recorded as an abysmal case for the Americans. I would like to conclude that this situation is an opportunity as well as a threat.
It is a threat in the sense that, this wounded monster, who has some capabilities, in a state of anger may do something dangerous which could cost himself and others dearly.
It is an opportunity to teach America a lesson that Americans or any other superpower should avoid thinking about taking new colonies, adventurism, conquering other countries, and getting too big for their boots. This could be a valuable lesson for the Americans.
We can conclude that if the Iraqi problem is handled competently and the Americans became properly disappointed and accept defeat, the world would be rid of the Americans for a while and others will not be tempted to do this either.
And if the Americans can create a hell for the world and our region based on their 13 point instructions, it would be most damaging.
Therefore, it is expected of all Muslims, Iraqi ulema (Islamic scholars), Iraqi figures, and us all, to cooperate and advise America to take a correct path, avoid adventurism and not allow more harm to come to the Iraqi nation, the region and the American nation.
Sure sounds like a bit of a threat there to me. And understandably so, given the kinds of threats the Bush administration has been launching toward the Iranian government ever since it came into office.
Helena, thank you for this post. I have been wondering what role Iran might play regarding the future direction of Iraq and Afghanistan. Events during the past two weeks both in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that the US is not able to exert the control the Bush administration thought it could. It occured to me that the countries surrounding Iraq may, in the long run, have more impact on Iraqi politics than Americans imagine.
It seems to me that the Bush administration has been quite delusional in its efforts to build in short order an Iraqi government, which will be completely subservient to American interests in the region. Such an endeavor would have to ignore centuries of history, especially with respect to foreign colonialism and intervention there. Therefore, I believe the Bush plan in Iraq was doomed before the first soldier set foot on Iraqi soil.
It will be interesting to see how in the coming days Iran will intervene in Iraq to assist it in resisting the American plan for using Iraq as a platform to exert its influence in the region. It’s difficult to tell from Rafsanjani’s speech what specific assistance he’s contemplating to both help Iraq and thwart American imperial ambitions.
My understanding is that, while Rafsanjani provides some insight into the hardliners’ thinking (as William Kristol does into that of the Bush Administration), he is more of a peripheral political presence at this point. Please correct me if I am wrong.
However, he makes one point very clear: there is no way the U.S. will invade Iran now, or any time in the near future. At most, we will bomb the Bushehr nuclear site. In fact, any country in the world who wants to pursue an agenda counter to our own is likely encouraged.
BTW, do you have the link to the original Persian text of his speech?
One Iranian Perspective
Here is an interesting excerpt from Helena Coban . It is part of a sermon by former Iranian President Rafsanjani, which reportedly was given in Teheran last Friday, according to the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, in…