SAUDI LEADERSHIP ON LIFE SUPPORT:

SAUDI LEADERSHIP ON LIFE SUPPORT: Okay, call me a softie, but every so often I do feel sorry for those pampered little rich boys (and girls) called the Saudi royal family… The only family on the planet, by the way, to have a whole nation-state named after them. Well, maybe it’s something to do with them never having actually been forced to develop a work ethic, Protestant or otherwise. This idea that merely because of massive mineral wealth the rest of the world will come flocking to your doorstep looking for work or handouts.
But now, they’re in serious trouble.
As I see it, the trouble is this. The King, Fahd, has by common consent been almost completely out of it for (at least) the past eight years. But no-one’s had the decency to pull the plug on his many life-support systems, thus enabling a decent handover to the designated Crown Prince (and currently, the effective ruler), Abdullah.
Abdullah’s almost as geriatric as his elder half-brother, but has more of his wits about him.
So why hasn’t Abdullah or someone close to him pulled the plug on the old guy? Because they can’t figure out who, among the “senior royals” the NEXT Crown Prince (and therefore, the next in line to the throne) should be.
For the 30-plus years I’ve been watching the Saudi situation, it’s been assumed that next after Abdullah would come Sultan… And then, there’s a whole raft of further brothers and half-brothers– all of them the sons of the incredibly fecund King Abdul-Aziz Ibn Saud.
But by all accounts Abdullah can’t stand Sultan. And I guess he’s unable to impose his own choice on the situation.
Then, beyond that, if this succession rule of continuing down the row of brothers and half-brothers to the very last surviving son of Abdul-Aziz carries on, that might take a further 25-30 years of Extremely Geriatric Rule in the Kingdom. I think the youngest son of A-A is now in his mid 60s? And then, every single advance known to medical science that prolongs the life of older people is available to the senior “citizens” in THIS particular family. We are talking, the cutting edge of human longevity there…
Which may not, alas, be the best thing for the many other citizens of that troubled land.
Actually, many senior members of the NEXT generation are now themselves looking incredibly aged. Saud Ibn Faisal looks older now than his father did at the time of his assassination in 1975. And the luster has really gone off Bandar Ibn Sultan’s once-polished public image…
But the problem is, once you do move down to this “next” generation– I’ll not say “younger”, because some of them aren’t– whose descendants win the big prize at that point??? Hah! It’s because the family hasn’t wanted to decide that question definitively at any point over the past decades that they’ve carried on with this brother-to-brother thing.
There is something to be said, maybe, for British-style rules of strict primogeniture. (If not necessarily for the quaint old British custom of a newly enthroned king having all his younger brothers strangled in their beds.)
But that marrying-and-begetting strategy that made so much political sense for old King Abdul-Aziz as he gamboled priapically around his kingdom in the early years of the 20th century marrying strategically– one wife from this family, one from that region, one from that city; tying the new in-laws into loyalty to the centralized state by virtue of their concern for the resultant joint offspring– well, it may have made sense back then. Now, 100 years later, the results look quite dysfunctional.
So here’s a startling idea. Instead of having a centralized monarchical system, how about making this nation-state–whatever it may end up being called; and maybe “Saudi” Arabia is as good a name as any–into a state of all of its citizens?? One in which the joys and perils of sovereignty are shared equally among all of its people??
So far, the commonly held view has been that “ruling” over Saudi Arabia is something that confers only huge benefits. Oh, in the form of family-held monopolies (including over a good chunk of state revenues).
Right now though, I bet that if I were a senior royal, I would see the position of being “King” as also one involving incredibly tricky and dangerous decisions.
So okay, Fahd and Abdullah– go ahead– share those risks around! Democratize!! Do (at last) what you’ve vaguely been promising to do for so long!!!
You’ve got to admit, democratizing would also get you all out of the bind of deciding which particular Saudi royal gets to be the next Crown Prince, and which branch of the family walks away with the “big prize” in the next generation. Looks like a win-win situation to me. Or am I missing something?